| 【Abstract】 Objective To establish a predictive model for predictive model for Spinal Canal labor analgesia-related maternal fever and validate its predictive efficacy. Methods 2276 parturients who received labor analgesia from January 2021 to December 2021 were selected as the training set, aged ≥18 years,BMI 20～40 kg/m2,ASA physical status Ⅰ or Ⅱ,and divided into fever group and non-fever group according to the occurrence of intrapartum fever (T≥38.0℃). The independent risk factors of fever were screened by multivariate logistic regression, and the predictive model was established.568 parturients who received labor analgesia in the same hospital from January 2022 to March 2022 were selected as the verification set for the external validation by R language.Results In our study, there were 197 cases (8.7%) in the training set and 46 cases (8.1%) in the validation set experienced fever.Logistics regression analysis showed that primiparity, a high NEUT count, anemia and a heavier estimated fetal weight were risk factors for intrapartum fever, while a large body surface area and large cervical dilatation degree before labor analgesia were protective factors against intrapartum fever.According to the predictors, the predictive model for Spinal Canal labor analgesia-related maternal fever was established. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) curve was 0.698（95% CI 0.660~0.732), the sensitivity and specificity was 83.2% and 47.9%, respectively. Using R language for the external validation, the AUC is 0.703.The predictive model for Spinal Canal labor analgesia-related maternal fever tested well. Conclusion Primiparity, a high NEUT count, anemia and a heavier estimated fetal weight were risk factors for intrapartum fever, while a large body surface area and large cervical dilatation degree before labor analgesia were protective factors.The predictive model established based on these indicators can effectively predict the occurrence of intrapartum fever before labor analgesia. |
